emini analysis 21st September 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES sold off on Wednesday but held the very minor Support at 2493, see yesterday’s comments, and bounced strongly back. There has now emerged a one month poc at 2503 and this is the level to watch intraday – if ES can hold this level, distributions suggest a move to mid 2520s. Last week saw Aggressive Buying on Monday and higher Value Areas for the rest of the week. ES broke to a new high on Monday this week and has held the higher level.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2503 (1mn poc)
First Level LT Support = 2464.00 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 9.43. On 08/22 the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66% (unch), Nasdaq 62% (from 61%), R2000 66% (from 62%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location. 09/08 TLT reached its highest level since November but has fallen back sharply from there to close at its lowest level for 23 days on Tuesday. Futures indicate a sharply lower open for TLT today.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – 09/08 printed its lowest level since early 2015.
Gold: 09/07 GLD printed its highest level since September – has retraced from there.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14. USO probed above that Resistance on Thursday, Friday and Monday. Price printing time above that level would be a positive.
GBPUSD: chart recently tested, then consolidated above 1.2884, the 5mn poc, which put it in a strong price location. Having broken out above the August high early last week GBPUSD accelerated higher and on Friday printed its highest level since June 2016.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. 09/08 printed its highest level since Jan 2015.
USDJPY – Key Chart: 111.30 is the 2year poc – Chart is probing just above that Resistance again today. Price printing time above that level would be a positive.
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