emini futures analysis 5th February 2018 – pre-open
Value Areas on Tuesday through Thursday last week were printed below 2839, the minor poc, which put ES in a ST weak price location, see last Thursday’s highlighted comments. On Friday ES broke lower and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked. Also last week, the Rydex ratio reached a new extreme, see Sentiment below, and Breadth numbers dteriorated, see below.
First Level LT Support = 2688.00 (3mn poc)
Market Charts: Nyse turned negative; Nasdaq turned neutral; R2000 turned negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 45%, Nasdaq 49%, R2000 39%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at at 27.24 having reached 27.55 on Tuesday, the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – on Friday chart printed a ten month low. Major Support is a little lower at 119.00.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and has now broken the September low and 01/26 printed its lowest level since December 2014. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: The major poc recently migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart has rallied strongly from there and 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015. Currently holding close to that high.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. Has held 1.40 since then.
EURUSD: in December chart tested the 1 year poc Support at 1.1755 and held. 01/25 printed its highest level since December 2014.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location. 01/26 printed its lowest level since September.
