emini analysis 12th February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The 5mn Support at 2581 was tested on Friday but ES recovered to finish above that level. In fact most of the Value Area was also generated above that point. Aggressive Selling was marked twice last week. First sign of strength would be Significant Buying (green) marked above the 3mn Resistance at 2688. A Value Area printed below 2581 would be an indication of further weakness.
Resistance = 2688.00 (3mn poc)
Support = 2581.00 (5mn poc)
Market charts: All major Market charts are negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 16%, Nasdaq 22%, R2000 20%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 16.79 having reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – ended the week below 119.00, the major Support (maj poc) which is a weak position. Bond Bulls would want to see this level recovered quickly.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. On 01/26 the index printed its lowest level since December 2014. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. Closed on Tuesday below 126.60, the 2mn poc in a ST weaker location and finished the week lower from there.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but was sharply lower last week in line with the equity sell-off.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. Has come lower from there and printed a seventeen day low on Friday.
EURUSD: in December chart tested the 1 year poc Support at 1.1755 and held. 01/25 printed its highest level since December 2014. Off a little last week to test the Support at 1.2264, the 2mn poc – which has been tested again again today.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then.
