emini analysis 27th February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The Support at 2686 (3mn) was briefly tested overnight last Wednesday but has held. The last seven Value Areas have been generated entirely above this level. Friday and Monday generated Value Areas above 2718, the minor (1mn) poc, see chart which means ES currently prints above any important Resistance. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Monday for the fourth time in eight days. The Breadth number for NYSE has improved but remains below 50, see below, this is a little surprising (concerning?) considering the rally the market has had over the last ten days. Prefer to see a broader participation and that number >50%.
Support 1 = 2718.00 (1mn)
Support 2 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 3 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 39%), Nasdaq 51% (from 47%), R2000 45% (from 42%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.98. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc which is a weak position. Has been printing below that level since then. Bond Sentiment is very bearish at the moment which may set up a contrarian bullish stance but risk of further declines remains high if TLT is below 119.00.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. The 2mn poc is at 126.60 and Bulls would want to see GLD recover back above that level.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc and on Monday closed above 12.78, the 3mn poc as well.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. The 2mn poc is at 1.3955, and today chart prints very close to that level.
EURUSD: 02/16, the chart broke above the January high to print its highest level since December 2014. Off from there and briefly tested 1.2264, the 2mn poc. Bulls would want to see that level hold.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 02/16 printed at its lowest level since Nov 2016.
