emini analysis 16th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Dayframe: a 9day poc has emerged at 2757.50. In the ST, price relative to this level is worth monitoring for strength/weakness. This price could well attract more time.
Last week ES (Mar) briefly tested 2686, the 3month Support, which held. The last nine Value Areas have been printed above the 1/2R off the January high – this level is 2708 on the June contract. ES has probed above 2760, the 4mn VAH (dashed line). Price acceptance at this higher level would be bullish. In the LT, ES needs to hold 2686 (3mn) to remain in a strong price location.
Minor Support = 2728.00 (1mn June contract)
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 2 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 39% (from 41%), Nasdaq 56% (from 57%), R2000 52% (from 54%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher slightly lower at 21.13. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and had been printing below that level since then – until this week. Time printed above 119 would be a positive.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low. There is now a 3mn poc at 89.59 and the index currently prints just above that level.
Gold – GLD: The 4mn poc migrated to 125.23. GLD closed below at level on Thursday.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc but a recent probe above 12.78, the 3mn poc, was rejected.
GBPUSD: The 3mn poc recently migrated to 1.3896 and the chart is currently printing above that level.
EURUSD: broke back above 1.2264, the 2mn poc last week. Strong price location if it holds that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 03/02 printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
