emini analysis 29th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Following the failed probe above 2760, the major Value Area high, the 7month poc migrated to 2725.00 last week, see last Wednesday’s highlighted comments. I wrote “the migration of an important poc will often occur just before a new directional move begins so it is now important to monitor price relative to that level”. ES remains in a weak price location if prints below 2725, the 7month poc. The last five Value Areas have been printed below that level. It is possible that the poc could migrate and give us a new level to key from but currently ES is in a weak location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 27% (from 24%), Nasdaq 32% (from 33%), R2000 34% (from 31%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 18.74. I wrote early last week “a higher ratio on a notable down day is not usually an encouraging pattern in the ST”. A similar comment could be made about the whole of last week – a huge down week and an almost unchanged ratio. As I said in the video this week “the retail investor may have learned the lesson that every dip should be bought” and therefore they remain complacent. That’s concerning. The Ratio fell to 10.94 in February, a four month low, but ended last week at 19.86.
Bonds: TLT – closed above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to seee TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher. TLT closed above 121 on Wednesday.
Dollar Index: the 5mn poc is at 89.88. The Index is today printing just above that level. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: closed down on Wednesday but above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on 01/25 the chart reached its highest level since November 2015. Chart fell back but probed that high last Friday. Is in a strong LT price location as long as it prints above 11.41.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Chart currently prints above 1.3965, the 5mn poc, in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 3mn poc is at 1.2264, and chart currently prints above that level in a strong price location.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Last month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and on Monday printed its lowest level since November 2016.
