emini analysis 5th April 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
On Wednesday the 8month poc migrated lower to 2582, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. This is now Support. This occured on a 30 minute basis. On timescales lessthan 30 minutes the 8month poc remains at 2725 (Resistance). Bulls would want to see 2582 hold. Significant Buying (green) marked above this level would be a positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 29%), Nasdaq 39% (from 33%), R2000 42% (from 34%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 17.27. The Rydex traders have not registered any measurable fear over the last two weeks as the market has fallen. As I said in the video two weeks ago “the retail investor may have learned the lesson that every dip should be bought” and therefore they remain complacent. In the LT that would be concerning. The Ratio fell to 10.94 during February’s sell-off, a four month low.
Bonds: TLT – closed above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to seee TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 5mn poc is at 89.88. The Index is today printing just above that level. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on 01/25 the chart reached its highest level since November 2015. Chart equalled that high last week. Is in a strong LT price location as long as it prints above 11.41.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Chart currently prints above 1.3965, the 5mn poc, in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 3mn poc is at 1.2264, and chart currently prints at that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Last month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and on 03/26 printed its lowest level since November 2016.
