emini analysis 6th April – pre-open
On Wednesday the 8month poc migrated lower to 2582, see Wednesday’s highlighted comments. ES sold off overnight and Bulls would want to see this Support hold. Significant Buying (green) marked above this level would be a positive. Major Resistance is at the 2725 poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 36%), Nasdaq 41% (from 39%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 17.73. The Rydex traders did not register any measurable fear in March as the market fell. As I said in the video two weeks ago “the retail investor may have learned the lesson that every dip should be bought” and therefore they remain complacent. In the LT that would be concerning. The Ratio fell to 10.94 during February’s sell-off, a four month low.
Bonds: TLT – closed above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to seee TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 6mn poc is at 89.98. The Index is today printing above that level. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on 01/25 the chart reached its highest level since November 2015. Chart equalled that high last week. Is in a strong LT price location as long as it prints above 11.41.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Thursday’s decline was held at 1.3965, the 6mn poc. Price above this level is strong location.
EURUSD: the 6mn poc is at 1.2322, and the chart currently prints below that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. The 4mn has migrated to 106.17 and currently the chart is printing above that level in a stronger price location.
