emini analysis 12th April 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The decline on Monday afternoon was halted at 2611, the minor poc. On Wednesday that minor (1month) poc migrated to 2647. This is a new reference level for us in the ST and price relative to 2647 could be monitored for strength/weakness. I think 2647 could attract more time. Last week the 8month poc migrated lower to 2582. ES needs to hold that level to remain in a strong location in the LT. Significant Buying (green) marked above 2582 would be a positive. Major Resistance is at the 2725 poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 45% (from 44%), Nasdaq 45% (from 44%), R2000 50% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 16.26 (from 17.76). The Rydex traders did not register any measurable fear in March as the market fell. As I said in the video two weeks ago “the retail investor may have learned the lesson that every dip should be bought” and therefore they remain complacent. In the LT that would be concerning. The Ratio fell to 10.94 during February’s sell-off, a four month low.
Bonds: TLT – for three weeks TLT has been printing above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to see TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 6mn poc is at 89.98. The Index is today printing below that level. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – closed on Wednesday at its highest level since late 2015. Is in a strong LT price location as long as it prints above 11.41.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Last week the Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) held. Price above this level is strong location.
EURUSD: the 6mn poc is at 1.2322, and the chart currently prints at that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. The 4mn is at 106.17 and currently the chart is printing above that level in a ST stronger price location.
