emini analysis 16th April 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
As discussed in Friday’s video, last week the 9month poc migrated to ES 2647. This provided Support late in Friday’s session, see chart. A Value Area generated below 2647 would be the first minor sign of weakness.
Index ETFs: SPY 264.50 = 9mn; IWM 153.50 = 1year
Market Charts: Nyse stayed negative; Nasdaq and R2000 stayed neutral.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46%, Nasdaq 48%, R2000 51%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 17.13. The Rydex traders did not register any measurable fear in March as the market fell. As I said in the video three weeks ago “the retail investor may have learned the lesson that every dip should be bought” and therefore they remain complacent. In the LT that would be concerning. The Ratio fell to 10.94 during February’s sell-off, a four month low.
Bonds: TLT – for four weeks TLT has been printing above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to see TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 6mn poc is at 89.98. The Index is printing below that level in a weak price location. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on Friday printed its highest level since late 2015. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 12.30, the 4mn poc.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Recently the Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) held and today GBPUSD is approaching the January high.
EURUSD: the 6mn poc is at 1.2322, and the chart currently prints above that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. The 4mn is at 106.17 and currently the chart is printing above that level in a stronger price location.
