emini analysis 18th April 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Last week the 9month poc migrated to ES 2647. This provided Support late in Friday’s session. On Monday I marked Aggressive Buying above that level. This was the first Significant Buying for 25 days. A Value Area generated below 2647 would be the first sign of weakness. Breadth numbers improved again, see below.
Index ETFs Support: SPY 264.50 = 9mn; IWM 153.50 = 1year
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 55%), Nasdaq 58% (from 54%), R2000 65% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 14.49. Monday’s ratio was sharply lower at 14.19 and a forty day low. This was the first sign of fear. I’ve been concerned that we hadn’t see any fear in March as the market fell. Bull fund assets fell on Monday to the lowest level since October.
Bonds: TLT – for four weeks TLT has been printing above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to see TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 6mn poc is at 89.98. The Index is printing below that level in a weak price location. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on Friday printed its highest level since late 2015. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 12.30, the 4mn poc.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Recently the Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) held and this week GBPUSD printed above the January high.
EURUSD: the 6mn poc is at 1.2322, and the chart currently prints above that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. The 4mn is at 106.17 and currently the chart is printing above that level in a stronger price location.
