emini analysis 19th April 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES has reached the Resistance at 2718, the 4mn poc, this was the session high on Wednesday. We also have the 6mn VAH at 2725, a little higher. Time spent above 2700 could lift the 9mn poc (currently at 2647) and that would in effect remove the Resistance. In any event, time above 2718 would put ES in a stronger position or time below 2647 would indicate a first sign of weakness.
Index ETFs Support: SPY 264.50 = 9mn; IWM 153.50 = 1year
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 62%), Nasdaq 60% (from 58%), R2000 67% (from 65%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 13.93, a 43 day low. The market has rallied over last four days and the ratio has fallen – that is usually a ST positive. This week the ratio has indicated some nervousness. I’ve been concerned that we didn’t see any fear registering in March as the market fell but Bull fund assets fell this week to the lowest level since October.
Bonds: TLT – for four weeks TLT has been printing above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to see TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 6mn poc is at 89.98. The Index is printing below that level in a weak price location. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on Wednesday chart printed its highest level since November 2015. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 12.30, the 4mn poc.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Recently the Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) held and this week GBPUSD printed above the January high.
EURUSD: the 6mn poc is at 1.2322, and the chart currently prints above that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. The 4mn is at 106.17 and currently the chart is printing above that level in a ST stronger price location.
