emini 7th May 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous comments. Thursday’s low was a test of 2595, the 7month Value Area Low, see chart. The test was rejected and ES reversed intra-day to finish the session near the highs. On Friday I marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) and ES rallied further to approach 2672, the 12mn poc. Overnight and pre-open this level has been probed. Time printed above 2672 would be a positive. The 12mn poc could migrate lower if a little more time is spent close to either 2630 or 2650. Should that happen then the VAL would also shift.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2672 (12mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2647 (4mn poc)
Index ETFs: SPY 264.50 = 9mn; IWM 153.50 = 1year
Market Charts: Nyse & Nasdaq are negative, R2000 remained neutral.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51%, Nasdaq 50%, R2000 55%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 19.04. Up from 13.93 on 04/18, a 43 day low which indicated some nervousness from the Rydex traders. I’ve been concerned that we didn’t see any fear registering in March as the market fell but on 04/16 Bull fund assets fell to their lowest level since October.
Bonds: TLT – is printing below 121.00, the major poc, in a weak price location and last week was rejected from the 1/2R Resistance off the February low.
Dollar Index: has reached its highest level since early January.
Gold – GLD: The 4mn poc is at 125.23 and GLD is printing below that level in a weaker price location.
Oil: USO – On Friday printed its highest level since November 2015. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 12.79, the 12mn poc.
GBPUSD: in mid April the major Value Area High at 1.4212 was probed for the second time this year and was rejected again. The Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) was then broken and last week the Support trendline off the 2016 low was broken.
EURUSD: as explained in the video on 04/20, the major poc migrated to 1.2330. Since that point EURUSD has been printing below that level in a weaker price location. Has today printed it lowest level since December.
USDJPY: The 6mn poc for this chart migrated to 107 three weeks ago and the chart is printing up from that level.
