pre-open Friday 1st February 2019
Wednesday’s session generated a higher, wider Value Area. During the a.m. session the First Level Resistance at 2665 (6mn poc) came into play, see chart, but following Fed comments later in the day, ES spiked above that level. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. 2665 is now First Level Support. Thursday’s session found Support at Wednesday’s poc and another higher VA was generated. The major poc Resistance is at 2718.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 80% (from 77%), Nasdaq 77% (from 69%), R2000 73% (from 69%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 11.53 (from 13.34). On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: On Thursday TLT closed above 121.00, the major poc, in a strong position.
Dollar Index: as long as DXY prints above 94.80, the major poc, it is in a strong LT price location.
Gold: GLD – early last week GLD found low at 121.00, the major poc Support and then closed sharply higher on Friday. Strong location. Closed higher on Wednesday at its highest level since May.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and fell sharply lower from there. Has rallied back and on Wed/Thu probed above that level. This is an important chart. Price above 11.41 would be a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: earlier in the month the chart bounced again from a second test of 1.2481 (30mn poc). On Friday printed its highest level since 7th Nov. Has retraced from there.
EURUSD: is now printing above 1.1450, the 1/2R. Stronger position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart is currently printing below that level in a weak position.
