emini 14th March 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The major Support for both ES (2718) and SPY (272.49) held with SPY briefly testing that level on Friday. There was a strong bounce on Monday and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. ES generated higher Value Areas on Tue and Wed. As long as ES holds 2785.50 (3mn poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST and above 2718 ES remains in a strong LT price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72% (from 71%), Nasdaq 68% (from 66%), R2000 67% (from 66%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 18.58. Last week the ratio reached 18.68, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: closed above 121.0, the major poc, on Wednesday. TLT needs to hold above this level to stay in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) and this is First Level Support.
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support. LT position is strong if GLD holds this poc.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on Friday. Looks to have formed a higher low at the Support and this can be a strong pattern. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: The major poc (measured on a 30minute basis) migrated back up to 1.3130 early last week and chart is printing just above that poc.
EURUSD: price broke below 1.131 (maj poc) last week which put the chart in a weak position. This Resistance has been probed this week.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.
