emini 20th March 2019

emini 20th March 2019

Early in the month there was a rejected test of the major Value Area High (VAH) at 2818, the major pocs for both ES (2718) and SPY (272.49) were subsequently tested. These Support levels held and the market has rallied from there – back to probe above the VAH once again. Acceptance (time) at this level or above would be bullish. As long as ES holds 2785.50 (3mn poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST and above 2718 ES remains in a strong LT price location.

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 69%), Nasdaq 62% (from 67%), R2000 58% (from 65%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 20.19, the highest since 4th October. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.

Bonds – TLT: closed above 121.0, the major poc, on Tuesday. TLT needs to hold above this level to stay in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is currently printing very close to 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high). This is First Level Support.
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support. LT position is strong if GLD holds this poc.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Looks to have formed a higher low at that Support and this can be a strong pattern. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: chart is printing above 1.3130, the major poc. It is in a strong position if it holds that level but has today sold off sharply.
EURUSD: chart is printing back above 1.131 (maj poc) in a stronger position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.