emini 25th March 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Early in March there was a rejected probe of the major Value Area High (VAH) at 2818. There has now been another probe above the VAH that “may” be rejected again. Bulls would rather see acceptance (time) at this level or above which would be a bullish indication. In any event, as long as ES holds 2785.50 (3mn poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST and above 2718 ES remains in a strong LT price location.
Dayframe: On Thursday Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. It is rare that the low of a buying day would be broken the following day but that is what happened on Friday. This pattern is often a negative indication in the ST.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 47% (from 64%), Nasdaq 46% (from 58%), R2000 39% (from 56%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 19.38. Down from 20.19 on Tuesday, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: held 121.0, the major poc, for ten days and at the end of last week spiked its highest level since January ’18.
Dollar Index: is currently printing back above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high). Needs to hold this level to maintain a strong position in the ST but as long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – All year GLD has been consolidating above 121, the major Support. This could be a powerful pattern and lead to higher prices, especially if the dollar starts to weaken.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and has rallied to close at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: currently printing above 1.3130, the major poc. Likely to be volatile but needs to hold 1.3130 to stay in a strong position.
EURUSD: price relative to 1.131, the maj poc, is the most important rhing to monitor. Looking for a clear higher low or lower high above/below that poc.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
