emini 3rd April 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
There has been another probe above 2818, the major Value Area High (VAH) and this time there appears to be acceptance (time) at these higher levels which is a a bullish indication. There is minor Support at 2817.50, the 1mn poc and more important Support at 2792.50, the 3mn poc. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Monday.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 65%), Nasdaq 54% (from 56%), R2000 50% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 17.65. Down from 20.19 on 18th March, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: on Thursday TLT printed its highest level since December ’17. Was sharply lower on Monday but as long as it holds above 121.0 (maj) it is in a strong LT position. Futures indicate a lower open for TLT today.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) in a strong position in the ST. As long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – All year GLD has been consolidating above 121, the major Support. This could be a powerful pattern and lead to higher prices, especially if the dollar starts to weaken. GLD was sharply lower at the end of last week and needs to hold 121 to retain a strong position.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and has rallied to close on Tuesday at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: likely to be volatile and needs to be above 1.3130 to be in a strong position. Has today recovered that level.
EURUSD: price relative to 1.131, the maj poc, is most important to monitor and currently chart is printing below this level in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
