emini 16th April 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Last week the 1mn poc migrated higher again, up to 2887. This is now First level Support and price relative to this level is important to monitor. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Wednesday. Significant Selling (red-at-bottom) has not been marked at all this year.
The major Value Area Highs (VAH) are being probed again. The 18mn VAH for SPY moved up to 290, Friday’s high was 290.47 and for IWM the 2yr VAH is still at 158, and Friday’s high was 158.16. Acceptance (time) at these levels or higher would be bullish but a fast rejection can often occur at a major VAH.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68% (from 70%), Nasdaq 56% (from 63%), R2000 56% (from 62%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 21.07. Down from 21.23 last Wednesday, a 6 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016.
Bonds – TLT: 03/28 TLT printed its highest level since December ’17. Retraced sharply last week but as long as TLT holds above the 121 major Support it is in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) in a strong position in the ST. As long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – has recently tested (but held) the major Support at 121 for the third time. Critical that chart holds this level which has a “neckline” look about it. A break would put chart in a weak position.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and has rallied to close on Wednesday at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: likely to be volatile and needs to recover back above 1.3130 to be in a strong position.
EURUSD: price relative to 1.131, the maj poc, is most important to monitor and today that Resistance is being probed.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
