emini futures 2nd May 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
A sell-off late in Wednesday’s session left ES below 2933, the minor 10day poc. This level is now minor Resistance to a rally. The first sign of weakness would be a day session close below 2919, Friday’s Buying Day low, although there is Support at 2910, the 2month poc. Significant Selling (red) has not been marked at all this year.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% (from 62%), Nasdaq 51% (from 56%), R2000 52% (from 58%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 22.98, having reached 23.02 last Wednesday, a seven month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016.
Bonds – TLT: 03/28 TLT printed its highest level since December ’17. Has retraced from there but as long as TLT holds above the 121 major Support it is in a strong position.
Dollar Index: On Friday the index reached its highest level since May 2017, breaking above the highs of December and March around 97.7. However that breakout has not held and DXY has printed back below the level of those highs. In the LT as long as the chart is printing above the major at 94.80 it is in a strong position but we should be open to the possibility of a reversal here.
Gold: GLD – printing close to 121, the major poc. Chart is in a weak position if it prints below that level. Note also that the major poc for cash gold is at 1286.50. This was broken last week and Gold has not recovered back above that level.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and rallied strongly. On Tuesday last week closed at its highest level since October but was down hard at the end of the week. First Level Support is at 12.79, the 18mn.
GBPUSD: is in a weak position below 1.3130, the maj poc. Printed a 2 month low last week but found Support at 1.2915, the 1/2R off this year’s low and has bounced this week. Price below that level (1.2915) would indicate further weakness.
EURUSD: on Friday printed its lowest level since June 2017 having broken below March’s low (1.1174). However, the chart has not held that break lower and is printing back above that level. Possibility of a reversal – and see Dollar Index above. Note though that price below 1.1310 keeps the chart in a weak LT position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.
