emini SP500 5th June 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Positives: ES (and SPY) held their Major poc Support levels at ES-2718 and SPY-272.49. Both came close on Monday but rallied strongly on Tuesday. Tuesday’s Value Area was generated entirely above ES-2776, the 12mn poc. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Tuesday for the first time in 21 days. Also note that Significant Selling (red) has not been marked at all this year.
Significant Buying is usually the first positive sign after a sell-off, this needs to followed by a confirming improvement in daily Price Momentum and Breadth, see Pulse Chart. Also, Key Charts need to recover and print time back above their 1/2R levels off 2018 high. These have been highlighted over the last few days: FTSE100 7220; DAX 11930; IWM 149.60.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 27%), Nasdaq 31% (from 23%), R2000 34% (from 24%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 13.39, the lowest ratio since 02/19, having reached 23.93 on the 7th May, a seven month high.
Bonds – TLT: on Monday TLT printed its highest level since November ’16, almost testing the maj VAH at 132.80. Lower on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: 05/23 printed its highest level since May 2017 but has sold-off from there and printed a 38 day low today In the LT as long as the chart is printing above the major at 94.80 it is in a strong position.
Gold: GLD – sharply higher last four days. Price had been ranging around 121, the major poc, since mid-April. Looking for a higher low above that level which would be a bullish indication.
Oil: USO – last three days USO closed below 11.41, the Major Poc. This is a weak position and Bulls would hope that USO recovers this level asap.
GBPUSD: is in a weak position below 1.3130, the maj poc. The 1/2R off this year’s low, was broken earlier in the month and chart fell sharply from there. On Friday GBPUSD printed its lowest level since early January but has bounced this week.
EURUSD: last week printed its lowest level since June 2017. The Major poc Resistance at 1.1310 is being probed today.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.17. Chart is currently in a weak position below that level.
HYG: is in a weak position below the major poc. This is a general risk-off indication.
