emini 15th August 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Read yesterday’s comments first. ES sold off overnight on Wednesday and the session opened with a rejected probe of 2887, the 15mn poc. ES sold off quickly and the entire Value Area was generated below that level, leaving ES in a weak position. Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked. Pre-open today price has printed below 2820, testing the weak low on 08/05 (but not in day session hours which I prefer to see). In the last eight sessions, Significant Selling has been marked three times and Buying once. I’m not considering longs until Significant Buying is marked above 2887.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 27% (from 39%), Nasdaq 29% (from 41%), R2000 31% (from 42%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.36. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.
Bonds – TLT: 07/31 TLT spiked above 132.80, the maj Value Area High and has rallied powerfully reaching a new high on Wednesday.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00 – now Support. Earlier in the month DXY printed a two year high but retraced from there. Major VAH at 99.50.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly to its highest level since early 2013 and is probing the Resistance at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high. Time above this level would be a further indication of LT strength.
Oil: USO – Bulls would want to see time printed back above 11.41, the major poc.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. In July the chart broke below 1.2481, the 30mn poc, and on Monday printed its lowest level since Jan 2017.
EURUSD: in early July the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position. Earlier in the month the chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Has rallied back from there.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.65. Chart is currently in a weak position below that level.
