emini 23rd August 2019 – pre-open
All four Value Areas this week have been generated above the 2903 Support (1/2R off this year’s high) and more importantly above 2887, the 15mn poc. That’s a strong position but ES hasn’t strayed far from the current controlling price at 2927 all week, normal behaviour prior to a risk event, in this case Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today. As I wrote on Tuesday “Price relative to this level is important to monitor. Significant Buying (green) marked above the poc would be a positive sign and indicate a breakout of the recent range.” Also see previous comment from Monday (highlighted).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 39% (unch), Nasdaq 41% (unch), R2000 42% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was little changed at 18.35. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.
Bonds – TLT: 07/31 TLT spiked above 132.80, the maj Value Area High and has rallied powerfully reaching a new high last week.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00 – now Support. Resistance at 99.50, the Major VAH.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly to its highest level since early 2013 to probe the major Resistance at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high. Time above this level would be a further indication of LT strength.
Oil: USO – Bulls would want to see time printed back above 11.41, the major poc.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. In July the chart broke below 1.2481, the 30mn poc, and on last week chart printed its lowest level since Jan 2017.
EURUSD: in early July the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position. Earlier this month the chart printed its lowest level since May 2017.
USDJPY: is printing below 108.90, the major 1/2R off the 2016 low. Room for a rally but this is a weak position.
