emini 27th August 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
During Thursday’s session there was an early probe of 2927, the 4mn poc, and ES immediately sold off generating a Value Area entirely below 2887, the 15mn poc which is a weak position (Friday’s VA was also generated below that level). Aggressive Selling was marked on Thursday and these red-at-bottom lows are usually tested (80%) within two days. However, recent Significant Selling (red) has not seen continuation, see comment 19th August, and Sentiment is overly Bearish (i.e. contrarian Bullish), see comment 14th August. ES is currently in a range (18 days) centred around 2887 and both Buyers and Sellers seem unable to auction price away from that controlling price (exactly where ES prints as I write this pre-open). imo odds favour the Bears in the ST, Bulls should wait for Significant Buying (green) to be marked above 2887, see comment 19th August.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 37%), Nasdaq 32% (from 28%), R2000 32% (from 29%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is at 17.77. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.
Bonds – TLT: 07/31 TLT spiked above 132.80, the maj Value Area High and has rallied powerfully reaching a new high this month.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00 – now Support. Resistance at 99.50, the Major VAH.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly to its highest level since early 2013 to probe the major Resistance at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high. Time above this level would be a further indication of LT strength.
Oil: USO – Bulls would want to see time printed back above 11.41, the major poc.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. In July the chart broke below 1.2481, the 30mn poc, and earlir this month chart printed its lowest level since Jan 2017.
EURUSD: in early July the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position. Earlier this month the chart printed its lowest level since May 2017.
USDJPY: is printing below 108.90, the major 1/2R off the 2016 low…this is a weak position.
