emini 29th August 2019

Since the start of the month ES has been in a range centred around 2887, the 15mn poc. Significant Sellers has been marked four times in that period but have not effectively auctioned price lower – this price action usually indicates Buyers Resting. Bulls would want to see Significant Buying marked above 2887 and a break above 2927, the 4mn poc Resistance, which has marked the upper limit of the range.

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 29%), Nasdaq 31% (from 28%), R2000 32% (from 29%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 16.29, the lowest since 10th June. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.

Bonds – TLT: 07/31 TLT spiked above 132.80, the maj Value Area High and has rallied powerfully reaching a new high this month.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00 – now Support. Resistance at 99.50, the Major VAH.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly to its highest level since early 2013 and is now printing above 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high in a strong position. Time above this level would be a further indication of LT strength.
Oil: USO – Bulls would want to see time printed back above 11.41, the major poc.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. In July the chart broke below 1.2481, the 30mn poc, and earlier this month chart printed its lowest level since Jan 2017.
EURUSD: in early July the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position. Earlier this month the chart printed its lowest level since May 2017.
USDJPY: is printing below 108.90, the major 1/2R off the 2016 low…this is a weak position.