emini 11th November 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Value Areas Value Areas have been generated above 2989, the 2mn poc. That level is First Level LT Support. In the shorter term ES is generating Value Areas above 3038.00 (minor poc) which is a positive sign. This is First Level ST Support.
ES reached the distribution target at 3060, see comment 29th Oct. There is the possibility of rejection above that price but no sign of that so far. Acceptance (time) at, or above that level, it would be a bullish indication. Equivalent level for SPY is 307.50.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 65%, R2000 67%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 17.54. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The minor (4mn) poc is now at 140 = Resistance. TLT fell sharply last week.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 on Friday (exact). New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) but declined recently to end last week at its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is printing back above the 11.41 Major poc. Price above 11.95 (1/2R off 2016 low) would put USO in a stronger position – that level was probed last week but no significant time has been printed above it.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but fell back last week.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 on Friday (exact). New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) but declined recently to end last week at its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is printing back above the 11.41 Major poc. Price above 11.95 (1/2R off 2016 low) would put USO in a stronger position – that level was probed last week but no significant time has been printed above it.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but fell back last week.
