emini 14th November 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Value Areas Value Areas have been generated above 2989, the 2mn poc. That level is First Level LT Support.
The 1month poc has migrated to 3083. Price relative to that level is important to monitor in the ST. Note that an early test of that poc was rejected on Wednesday and ES rallied, generating a Value Area above that level.
ES reached the distribution target at 3060, see comment 29th Oct. There is the possibility of rejection above that price but no sign of that so far. Acceptance (time) at, or above that level, it would be a bullish indication. Equivalent level for SPY is 307.50.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61% (from 63%), Nasdaq 62% (from 65%), R2000 62% (from 64%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 16.65. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The minor (4mn) poc is now at 140 = Resistance. TLT fell sharply last week.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and has rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4. New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) but declined recently to end last week at its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is printing back above the 11.41 Major poc. Price above 11.95 (1/2R off 2016 low) would put USO in a stronger position – that level has been probed over the last few days but no significant time has been printed above it.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but has given back more than half the gain from that low.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and has rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4. New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) but declined recently to end last week at its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is printing back above the 11.41 Major poc. Price above 11.95 (1/2R off 2016 low) would put USO in a stronger position – that level has been probed over the last few days but no significant time has been printed above it.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but has given back more than half the gain from that low.
