emini 15th November 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Value Areas Value Areas have been generated above 2989, the 2mn poc. That level is First Level LT Support.
Earlier in the week the 1month poc migrated to 3083. I’ve been writing that “Price relative to that level is important to monitor in the ST”. Migration of a poc followed by Support at that level can be a bullish pattern, see chart.
ES reached the distribution target at 3060, see comment 29th Oct. There is the possibility of rejection above that price but no sign of that so far. Acceptance (time) at, or above that level, it would be a bullish indication. Equivalent level for SPY is 307.50.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 61%), Nasdaq 60% (from 62%), R2000 62% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 17.49, middle range of readings over last two years as SPX reaches new high. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The minor (4mn) poc is at 140 = Resistance.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and has rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4. New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) but declined recently to end last week at its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is printing back above the 11.41 Major poc. Price above 11.95 (1/2R off 2016 low) would put USO in a stronger position – that level has been probed over the last few days but no significant time has been printed above it.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but has given back more than half the gain from that low.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and has rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4. New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) but declined recently to end last week at its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO is printing back above the 11.41 Major poc. Price above 11.95 (1/2R off 2016 low) would put USO in a stronger position – that level has been probed over the last few days but no significant time has been printed above it.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. Has probed 1.2914, the 1/2R Resistance off 2016 low but has not printed significant time above that level.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there but has given back more than half the gain from that low.
