emini 20th December 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
I wrote yesterday that price action over the last few “Looks like Buyers Resting”, see highlighted comments. When Effective Buying action pauses (Buyers Resting), Sellers are offered opportunity. In this case they didn’t take it. Buyers took confidence from that and stepped back in yesterday (green on chart) and a higher Value Area was generated (Efficient). It looks as though Buyers are still in control of the dayframe and higher prices will be seeking Sellers. First sign of weakness now would be a day session close below yesterday’s Buying Day low.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72% (unch), Nasdaq 72% (unch), R2000 72% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply higher to 26.06. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off. The highest reading I have is 27.5 in Jan ’18.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Thursday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has been tested this week but DXY currently prints up from that level. Price below the poc would be a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, early in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc which is now important Support. That Support has been broken this week and Bulls would want to see it recovered as quickly as possible.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and last week probed the poc Resistance at 1.120. Down from that level.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has been tested this week but DXY currently prints up from that level. Price below the poc would be a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, early in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc which is now important Support. That Support has been broken this week and Bulls would want to see it recovered as quickly as possible.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and last week probed the poc Resistance at 1.120. Down from that level.
