emini ES – 23rd December 2019
See Friday’s highlighted comments. First sign of weakness now would be a day session close below yesterday’s Buying Day low.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 73%, R2000 72%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 25.46, having reached 26.06 on Thursday. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off. The highest reading I have is 27.5 in Jan ’18.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Friday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has been tested this week but DXY currently prints up from that level. Price below the poc would be a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, early in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc. That Support was broken last week and GBPUSD has fallen from there.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and earlier this month probed the poc Resistance at 1.120. Down from that level.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has been tested this week but DXY currently prints up from that level. Price below the poc would be a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, early in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc. That Support was broken last week and GBPUSD has fallen from there.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and earlier this month probed the poc Resistance at 1.120. Down from that level.
