emini ES 31st December 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Thursday and on Monday ES closed the day session below 3229,the low of that Buying Day. This indicates that Thursday’s Significant Buyers have been disrupted and this is often a first sign of weakness, see Monday’s highlighted comments.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71% (from 73%), Nasdaq 67% (from 68%), R2000 64% (from 66%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 26.0. Down from 28.62 on Friday, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Monday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 last week and currently DXY prints below that level in a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August. Is currently rallying back towards that Resistance.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, earlier in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc. The major poc has now migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that level (now Support) to remain in a strong position – Support held last week and GBPUSD has rallied from there.
EURUSD: is today printing above the 1.12 poc in a stronger position. Next Resistance is the 1.131 major Poc.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 last week and currently DXY prints below that level in a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August. Is currently rallying back towards that Resistance.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, earlier in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc. The major poc has now migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that level (now Support) to remain in a strong position – Support held last week and GBPUSD has rallied from there.
EURUSD: is today printing above the 1.12 poc in a stronger position. Next Resistance is the 1.131 major Poc.
