emini 2nd January 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Thursday and on Monday ES closed the day session below 3229,the low of that Buying Day. This indicates that Thursday’s Significant Buyers have been disrupted and this is often a first sign of weakness, see Monday’s highlighted comments. However, the 6wk poc migrated to 3228 on Tuesday and ES is currently printing above that level so I assume that if that Support holds ES is in a strong position. Significant Buying (green) marked above 3228 would be a positive and indicate higher even though there are warnings from Sentiment, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 73% (from 71%), Nasdaq 68% (from 67%), R2000 65% (from 64%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply lower at 23.85. Down from 28.62 on Friday, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Tuesday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and currently DXY prints below that level in a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times in Oct/Nov at 143 (major 1/2R) and on Tuesday probed that Resistance again.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, earlier in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD has rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc. Price above that level is a stronger position. Next Resistance is the 1.131 major Poc.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and currently DXY prints below that level in a weak position.
Gold: Found Resistance three times in Oct/Nov at 143 (major 1/2R) and on Tuesday probed that Resistance again.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, earlier in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD has rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc. Price above that level is a stronger position. Next Resistance is the 1.131 major Poc.
