ES emini 6th January 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
I posed the question on Friday “will Significant Sellers step in here and take control below 3228, the 6wk poc, or can Buyers auction ES back above that level (now Resistance)?” – see highlighted comments.
You can see from the chart that Buyers very quickly auctioned ES back above the poc and in fact Friday’s entire Value Area was generated above that level. This is encouraging. First sign of technical weakness would be a Value Area generated below that poc, 3228.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 68%, R2000 62%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: Data is not yet available for Friday. On 12/27 my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Friday. Price above the poc would be a stronger location.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level, like now, is a weak location.
Gold: Has rallied back to the major VAH at 146.50 and approached the September high on Friday. Price is printing back above 143.0, the major 1/2R in a strong position.
Oil: On Friday USO printed its highest level since April. Is now printing above 12.73, the 1/2R off 2018 high, and is in a LT strong location if that level (now Support) is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: is probing the 1.12 poc again today. Price above that level is a stronger location.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level, like now, is a weak location.
Gold: Has rallied back to the major VAH at 146.50 and approached the September high on Friday. Price is printing back above 143.0, the major 1/2R in a strong position.
Oil: On Friday USO printed its highest level since April. Is now printing above 12.73, the 1/2R off 2018 high, and is in a LT strong location if that level (now Support) is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: is probing the 1.12 poc again today. Price above that level is a stronger location.
