S&P 500 futures emini 27th January 2020
I’ve been writing “First sign of technical weakness would now be a day-session close below 3302.75, that is the 01/16 Buying day low (dashed line on chart). That’s what we got on Friday. The 1month poc at 3283 halted the downside on Friday but price today is below that Support and indicates a retest of 3228. At this point I would want to see disrupted Buyers re-assert themselves, i.e. Significant Buying (green), before looking at new longs.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 54% (from 63%), Nasdaq 58% (from 66%), R2000 52% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 23.61. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: closed on Friday above 141.69, the 1/2R off August high in a stronger position. Bullish if that Support holds in early part of coming week.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price is currently above that level.
Gold: GLD is now probing 146.50 again, the maj VAH. As I wrote in early October “Acceptance (time) at that level would be bullish”.
Oil: USO has declined this month and on Friday tested the important Support at 11.41 (maj poc). Price printing below that Support wouldbe a further negative.
GBPUSD: has held major support at 1.2933 since early December. I wrote on 24th Dec GBPUSD has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc. That poc has now migrated to 1.2933 (now Support) and GBPUSD needs to hold that level to remain in a strong position.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and ended the week below 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low, in a weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price is currently above that level.
Gold: GLD is now probing 146.50 again, the maj VAH. As I wrote in early October “Acceptance (time) at that level would be bullish”.
Oil: USO has declined this month and on Friday tested the important Support at 11.41 (maj poc). Price printing below that Support wouldbe a further negative.
GBPUSD: has held major support at 1.2933 since early December. I wrote on 24th Dec GBPUSD has rallied strongly from early October and had been printing above the 1.3130 major poc. That poc has now migrated to 1.2933 (now Support) and GBPUSD needs to hold that level to remain in a strong position.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and ended the week below 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low, in a weak position.
