S&P 500 emini 3rd February 2020
S&P 500 emini saw aggressive selling (red-at-bottom) marked on Friday. The Support at the 3228 poc has now been tested, see Wednesday’s comments. Pre-open today ES is printing above that level. Price printing time below the poc would be a further negative. I would want to see Significant Buying (green) being marked before looking at new longs.
Market Charts: U.S. Market Charts turned negative, as did U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36%, Nasdaq 38%, R2000 33%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 24.24. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: TLT closed on Friday at its highest level since early October. 141.69, the 1/2R off August high is now Support.
Dollar Index: Last week there was a rejected probe of the 1/2R Resistance at 98.0. Price declined sharply at the end of the week and the 3yr poc Support at 97.38 was tested. Price below that level would be a weaker position.
Gold: GLD closed on Friday at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below the major poc Support at 11.41 in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has migrated to 1.3128. ES is printing below that level today. Note also the minor Resistance at the 1/2R off Dec high at 1.3208, which has turned GBPUSD lower today.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there. This week I’m monitoring price relative to 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Price above that level would be a stronger position.
Dollar Index: Last week there was a rejected probe of the 1/2R Resistance at 98.0. Price declined sharply at the end of the week and the 3yr poc Support at 97.38 was tested. Price below that level would be a weaker position.
Gold: GLD closed on Friday at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below the major poc Support at 11.41 in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has migrated to 1.3128. ES is printing below that level today. Note also the minor Resistance at the 1/2R off Dec high at 1.3208, which has turned GBPUSD lower today.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there. This week I’m monitoring price relative to 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Price above that level would be a stronger position.
