S&P 500 emini 4th February 2020
The 4month poc has migrated higher to 3249.0. Price relative to this level is important to monitor (>strong <weak). I would want to see Significant Buying (green) being marked above 3249 before looking at new longs. Price printing time below that level would be a negative now.
Aggressive Selling was marked on Friday. If ES prints above Friday’s high at 3277.0 (dashed line on chart) during today’s session then any ST negative implications of that selling imbalance will be negated. ES has rallied back above 3285 pre-open today. There is minor 1/2R Support at 3275.0 (off Jan high).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 39% (from 36%), Nasdaq 42% (from 38%), R2000 37% (from 33%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 24.57. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: TLT closed on Friday at its highest level since early October. 141.69, the 1/2R off August high is now Support.
Dollar Index: Last week there was a rejected probe of the 1/2R Resistance at 98.0. That level could be in play again today. Price declined sharply at the end of the week and the 3yr poc Support at 97.38 was tested. Price below that level would be a weaker position.
Gold: GLD closed on Friday at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below the major poc Support at 11.41 in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has migrated to 1.3128. GBPUSD is printing below that level today. Note also the minor Resistance at the 1/2R off Dec high at 1.3208, which turned GBPUSD lower yesterday.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there. This week I’m monitoring price relative to 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Price above that level would be a stronger position but EURUSD prints below that 1/2R today.
Dollar Index: Last week there was a rejected probe of the 1/2R Resistance at 98.0. That level could be in play again today. Price declined sharply at the end of the week and the 3yr poc Support at 97.38 was tested. Price below that level would be a weaker position.
Gold: GLD closed on Friday at its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below the major poc Support at 11.41 in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has migrated to 1.3128. GBPUSD is printing below that level today. Note also the minor Resistance at the 1/2R off Dec high at 1.3208, which turned GBPUSD lower yesterday.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there. This week I’m monitoring price relative to 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Price above that level would be a stronger position but EURUSD prints below that 1/2R today.
