S&P 500 emini 5th February 2020
Price relative to 3249.0, the 4mn poc, is important to monitor (>strong <weak). I would want to see Significant Buying (green) being marked above that level before looking at new longs. Tuesday’s Value Area was printed above Friday’s Selling day high which negates any ST negative implications of that selling imbalance, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. There is minor 1/2R Support at 3275.0 (off Jan high).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 39%), Nasdaq 49% (from 42%), R2000 42% (from 37%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged (again) at 24.4. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: closed on Friday at its highest level since early October. 141.69, the 1/2R off August high is now Support.
Dollar Index: is today printing above 98.0, the 1/2R Resistance off Oct high, in a stronger position.
Gold: GLD closed on Friday at its highest level since April 2013 but has retraced from there.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below the major poc Support at 11.41 in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has migrated to 1.3128. GBPUSD is printing below that level today. Note also the minor Resistance at the 1/2R off Dec high at 1.3208, which turned GBPUSD lower yesterday.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and is today printing below 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low in a weaker position.
Dollar Index: is today printing above 98.0, the 1/2R Resistance off Oct high, in a stronger position.
Gold: GLD closed on Friday at its highest level since April 2013 but has retraced from there.
Oil: USO has declined this year and is now printing below the major poc Support at 11.41 in a weak position.
GBPUSD: The major poc has migrated to 1.3128. GBPUSD is printing below that level today. Note also the minor Resistance at the 1/2R off Dec high at 1.3208, which turned GBPUSD lower yesterday.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and is today printing below 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low in a weaker position.
