S&P 500 emini 21st February 2020
Dayframe: 14dy poc migrated to 3371 last week. ES is curently finding that level “attractive”, possibly a poc of a more important degree is developing here.
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked early last week. The first sign of minor weakness would be a day-session close below 3323 (dashed line), the low of that Buying day. The minor (6wk) poc Support is 3324.5 which is close. Time below that level would indicate a test of 3249.0, the 4mn poc. First sign of LT weakness would be Effective Selling marked below that poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 50% (unch), Nasdaq 50% (unch), R2000 46% (from 44%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 27.09. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 1/2R Support off August high, is at 141.69. A higher low above that level has formed. Strong position.
Dollar Index: is currently probing above the Major VAH at 99.50, which previously rejected price. Acceptance (time) at, or above, this level would be a bullish indication.
Gold: on Thursday GLD printed its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and has been printing below 11.41, the major poc in a weak position. Has rallied back and on Thursday probed that Resistance.
GBPUSD: Last week the major poc migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). Today GBPUSD is printing “at” that level. Price printing time below 1.2933 would be an indication of further weakness.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and broke the Support at 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Has now broken below that low and has this week printed its lowest level since April 2017.
Dollar Index: is currently probing above the Major VAH at 99.50, which previously rejected price. Acceptance (time) at, or above, this level would be a bullish indication.
Gold: on Thursday GLD printed its highest level since April 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and has been printing below 11.41, the major poc in a weak position. Has rallied back and on Thursday probed that Resistance.
GBPUSD: Last week the major poc migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). Today GBPUSD is printing “at” that level. Price printing time below 1.2933 would be an indication of further weakness.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there and broke the Support at 1.1058, the 1/2Range off October low. Has now broken below that low and has this week printed its lowest level since April 2017.
