S&P emini 4th March 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
An early probe yesterday of the 1/2R Resistance at 3125.50, dashed line, was rejected and ES sold off – see yesterday’s highlighted pre-open comments. You can see from the chart how ES is currently bound by that Resistance and the major poc Support at 2887. ES has rallied back overnight (above 3055) and Bulls would hope a further attempt at 3125.50 would be successful. In the longer time-frame it is critical that the Support at 2887 holds. A Value Area generated below that level would be LT negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 9% (from 11%), Nasdaq 13% (from 16%), R2000 11% (from 13%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was only slightly lower at 14.6, close to Friday’s four month low.
Bonds – TLT: in early Feb we saw a higher low form above the 1/2R Support off August high and TLT moved strongly higher from there. New high printed on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: Maj VAH at 99.50 was probed again in mid February, as in September. Looks like rejection so far with the dollar lower from there, but acceptance (time) at or above this level would be bullish.
Gold: last week GLD printed its highest level since early 2013. Sold off from there but rallied back strongly yesterday.
Oil: USO has declined this year and has been printing below 11.41, the major poc, in a weak position. Rallied back mid-February but turned lower from that Resistance and fell heavily to end last week at its lowest level since 2017.
GBPUSD: mid-Feb the major poc migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). GBPUSD is currently printing below that level in a weak position.
EURUSD: earlier in the year there was a rejected probe above 1.1216, the major poc Resistance. EURUSD declined from there to print its lowest level since April 2017 but has rallied back strongly and on Tuesday closely approached that Resistance again.
