emini 19th May 2020 – pre-open
Early in Thursday’s session there was a brief, rejected test of First Level Support at 2786, the 1/2R off this year’s high (dashed line on chart). Friday generated a higher Value Area and Monday spiked higher, see highlighted comments from 5th May re higher-lows at obvious Support. Most important Support is at 2719, the maj poc. ES needs to hold this level to maintain a strong position in the longer timeframe.
FTSE: the major poc is at 5870 and FTSE is printing above that level this week in a stronger position.
IWM: the major poc is at 115.35. The low of this recent dip came in at 117.18. The major 1/2R from the 2018 high is at 134.50; IWM tested this Resistance in April and sold-off. Price printing time above that level would be a positive.
TLT: 6mn poc is at 165.36. TLT is printing back below that level in a weaker position. Futures indicate that TLT will open lower today.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 8.13. As I have been writing for weeks, the S&P has retraced more than half this year’s decline but the ratio has retraced less tha 25% of its own decline – this is usually a bullish indication. The index fell to 3.35 on 03/17, the lowest since early 2016. The index reached 28.62 on 12/27, the highest reading in my database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 48%), Nasdaq 79% (from 60%), R2000 72% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
