posted 9.27 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 30th April
Thursday’s Value Area was higher and narrower on reduced Volume. Support (1/2R off Monday’s high) held shortly after the open and ES rallied from there. The poc from the start of April has moved to 1202.50 and that is the First Level S/R today.
Dayframe: The last imbalance was Selling (red) on Tuesday which eliminates the long side for me even though ES has manoeuvered into a stronger price location above the minor 1/2R (dotted) and the poc at 1202.50.
If ES can hold above 1202.50 there is a strong possibility of a move to a new high here despite the sentiment (see below) – maybe up to the target I talked about earlier in the week at 1225 or just below. I’ll have to watch it though.
Longframe: CP Market Timing System (weekly) is positive.
ST sentiment: Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is back up to 3.0. On Monday the Ratio hit an extreme high of 3.4 and only fell back slightly to 2.9 with Tuesday’s sell off. The Rydex timers are optimistic and confident that holding on will bring reward. Historically that has been a warning for the market.
The ISEE (equity only) index came in at 184 which leaves the 10dyma above 200 at 209 – still very high.
VIX closed at 22.81 on Tuesday but heading sharply lower at 18.4 by Thursday’s close.
LT Sentiment: The Investors Intelligence (newsletters) Poll reports three times the number of Bulls to Bears. That has to be a concern. It’s a rare occurence and the last two times the ratio was above 3 were October 07 and December 09.
Supporting Charts with important levels:
+ USDJPY prints above the 93.60 1/2 level.
– EURUSD still in a weak position and momentum is down (PriceOsc)
+ UDX prints above support band 80.15-80.30
? IEF found resistance on Tuesday at the 90.50 poc but daily price osc is still moving higher.
These charts are currently mixed for equities
