posted 5.40 a.m. est
Pre-open Wednesday 16th June
Aggressive Buyers were active on Tuesday (green-at-top). I apply my own strict criteria when classifying Buying or Selling activity as Effective. One of these is whether the Value Area is overlapping or not. Yesterday’s Value Area was overlapping/higher and strictly speaking that means I cannot call it Effective Buying.
Based on current Dayframe analysis:
1 With the last imbalance now Buying (green) I cannot look for short trades in the dayframe.
2 I expect yesterday’s green-at-top high to be tested because 80% of the time they are the following day.
3 Major poc at 1094 is now First Level support.
4 First Level Resistance is 1122 on the September contract. This is the 1/2Range from the April high.
Longframe: Long positions are eliminated for me until the CP Mkt Timing system turns positive. I would also want to see ES printing above 1122.
ST Sentiment: This is interesting. Yesterday saw a clear decrease in ST Bears – nothing excessive though. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up from 1.02 to 1.44 with Bear Fund Assets that I follow down nearly 25%. The ISEE index (equity only) shot up to 200 which is the highest single reading since 26th April, the day the market hit top and VIX closed at 25.87 which is a 23 day low.
Supporting Charts analysis unchanged. These charts are mixed and imo their influence is uncertain for equities in the short term.
