posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open Tuesday 13th July
As ES approached the 3month poc at 1073 it has slowed – note the narrowing Value Areas. But 1073 has not been obvious resistance – in fact on Monday ES built the poc further, see chart. So the Aggressive Buying in the dayframe has been Responsive in the longer timeframe i.e. ES is now back at the price level it has spent most time at over the last three months, or back to Value.
This does not help us much in determining direction but we know what to watch for:
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) above 1073 would be bullish.
Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) below 1073 would be bearish.
ST Sentiment: The rally over the last week must also be hurting the Rydex timers who turned so bearish recently but they stubbornly refuse to embrace the long side.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up very slightly at 0.91 from 0.88. That’s probably bullish (contrarian).
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
? USDJPY: Price Osc has been higher last three days after twelve consecutive days lower.
? EURUSD: higher low based on the 1.2133 major halfway level was confirmed by a breakout above the June high. Printed a new 8wk high last week. ST overbought though.
? UDX: below the important 85.14 poc and printed a new 8wk low last week. ST oversold.
? TLT/IEF uptrend still intact but technically overbought on the dailies with neg divergence
not helpful at the moment re equities
