posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 16th July
Thursday: Once again the 1094 Major Poc was difficult resistance for ES. That’s the third consecutive day – see chart. And again pre-open today a price probe into that poc has been rejected – ES currently 1086.
Significant Buyers responded after the gap was filled. ES rallied back to the major poc.
Above 1094, the 1/2R off the April high at 1107 might come into play as resistance.
LT Sentiment: AAII (public poll) Bulls% came in at 39.4% (up from 20.9%). And Bears at 37.8% (down from 57.1%). That makes quite a difference to the nett, up from a negative -36.2 to 1.6. The 4wkma is still the lowest it has been for six months but there’s some Bulls appearing here.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 1.27 to 1.2. This looks ST bullish.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
– USDJPY: my comment yesterday “Weak chart I think” played out rather well. This chart hit a new low for the year today.
+ EURUSD: charges on – new 9wk high today. ST getting overbought though, e.g. 14dyRSI above 70.
+ UDX: Printed a new 10wk low today. ST oversold and potential support at 81.87
– IEF uptrend still intact. Daily chart bounced of the support trendline from April low.
imo Charts are mixed for equities but if dollar index finds support and EURUSD stalls with the OB situation the market could struggle.
