The 1mn VAL is at 4081 (dashed line) and price has not been rejected from that level as it was 02/10 so I assume the associated distribution is complete. Current (minor) distribution is down and as per Friday’s note (highlighted on chart) I’m expecting the Support at 3964, or close, to be tested. A break above 4137 would negate that assumption and put ES in a much stronger position.