posted 9.26 a.m. est
Pre-open Thursday 19th August
1126.25 is the 1/2 Bear Market level for ES continuous chart. This has proved resistance in June and August (see chart).
In the webcast on Monday 9th I showed the Value Area of the ES 3month price distribution. The VAH (value area high) came in at 1122.
This makes 1122-1126 a significant band of resistance for ES at the moment. Acceptance (time spent) above this band would be bullish.
The poc of the 3month price distribution is currently 1073 and probes below that level on 12th and 16th August have met with Responsive Buying. Acceptance below 1073 would be bearish.
The Major POC remains at 1094 and this level has attracted time over the last two sessions. A market printing close to a major poc often means tight value areas which makes predicting the direction difficult.
Longframe: The CP Market Timing System stayed negative for all U.S. indices for the fifteenth consecutive week.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: New multi-year low last week.
– EURUSD: PriceOsc has been lower for eight consecutive days.
– UDX: Apart from a probe that lasted a few minutes on the 6th Aug, the Dollar Index found support at 80.15 (1/2R off the March08 low) and has rallied.
– IEF: This week IEF reached the highest level since Jan 09.
imo these charts are not positive for equities at the moment.
