posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 27th August
Yesterday’s highlighted comments in graphic are relevant.
dayframe: First Level S/R today is 1049.25 (1/2R off Wednesday’s low). Pre-open ES has found resistance here.
LT Sentiment: Bears outnumbered Bulls this week in the AAII (public poll) by 2 to 1. This further reinforces the idea that downside is limited. AAII Bulls% were down to 20.7% this week which is the lowest %Bulls since March 2009 low and contrarian bullish.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly up from 0.90 to 1.09. Bear fund assets that I follow were down 16%. Not particualarly bullish off a low but the ratio itself is low. There’s minor niggles like this (and the VIX) but generally sentiment favours the Bulls (contrarian).
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: New multi-year low on Tuesday.
? EURUSD: Has stalled at 1.26 (1/2R off June low). Bulls would want to see this support hold. Breaking below this level would indicate further weakness.
– UDX: PriceOsc higher for 14 consecutive days.
– TLT: broke out above the 1/2R level at 105.22 last week. Very overbought though.
imo these charts are not yet positive for equities.
