posted 9.27 a.m. est
Pre-open Tueday 31st August
I marked Aggressive Selling on Monday but this was Ineffective (Value Area was overlapping/narrower on less Volume). ES failed again on Monday to overcome the 1/2R off July low at 1065.25.
Dayframe: The last imbalance is now Selling (red) and that eliminates new long trades for me. Although the red-at-bottom yesterday suggests Monday’s low will be tested I’m not convinced the Sellers are in control of the dayframe. I would turn bearish and look to short if I mark Effective Selling below 1053 (4month VAL) and bullish and look for longs if ES can print some Value above the 4month poc at 1073.
Last week the Significant Buyers Responded twice below 1040 which sets up a level of support.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up from 0.95 to 1.12.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: New multi-year low last week. PriceOsc positively diverging.
? EURUSD: Has stalled at 1.26 (1/2R off June low). Bulls would want to see this support hold. Breaking below this level would indicate further weakness.
– UDX: PriceOsc higher for 15 consecutive days.
– TLT: broke out above the 1/2R level at 105.22 and found fupport here on Friday. Break below would be bullish for equities.
imo these charts are not positive yet for equities.
