posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open Monday 20th September
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling once. Friday found low at the First Level Support (1117) which is a positive in the ST if it holds early this week. I marked Responsive Selling on Friday but this was Ineffective (higher, narrower Value Area and less Volume). There was no fast rejection to the price probes above the 20week Value Area High at 1120 (dotted) which is a positive sign but most likely indicates that either: progress higher will be a slow grind or a further fast leg up will come back.
Longframe: the Chartprofit Market Timing System – mixed. Nasdaq turned positive, NYSE turned neutral, R200 remained negative.
Dayframe: First Level Support stays at ES 1117 which is the minor poc.
LT Sentiment: measurements indicate a growing number of Bulls. As noted on Friday the latest AAII (public) poll was showing enough Bulls to be a worry but..
ST Sentiment: … i.e. my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is not confirming any contrarian interpretation that suggests this market won’t go higher. In fact on Friday the ratio was down from 1.46 to 1.32.
Supporting Charts
? USDJPY: Following the multi-year low last week chart is holding up after the strong rally on Wednesday
+ EURUSD: in strong location above the 1/2R off June low and Major poc with momentum up.
+ UDX: Momentum is down (PriceOsc), major support now at 80.15.
+ TLT: printing below the major 1/2R level at 105.22 and PriceOsc lower for twelve consecutive days.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
