posted 7.55am EST
Previous:
>>If there’s an aggressive test of Tuesday’s low soon after the open that doesn’t bounce back fast, then it would be likely that drive down has started.
However, I see Wednesday’s price action as most likely to be ranging with time spent between 790 and 795, similar to Tuesday. If the day seems to be developing like that I’d look to sell any overbought technicals on the 5 minute chart above that area.<<
There was an early test of Tuesday’s low and we did see a fast bounce back towards the high of Tuesday’s VA giving a brief opportunity to sell the overbought 5 minute chart. After that it was a ranging day as expected with no significant buyers or sellers leaving their mark on the profile.
I’m looking for another drive down this week so I’m not looking to put on any longs – too risky. Trying to play the strong possibility of an acceleration into the time pivot around 20th-24th, which I’m seeing down to 750 or just below. If that happens I’d be happy to go with responsive buyers but not yet.
A break of yesterday’s low at 776.5 would suggest continuation lower to me rather than test-then-rally.
I would suggest that ES up to 796 would cap the upside today if another drive down is imminent but a rally as far as 802 is a possibility. I’d looking for a fast rejection as a clue that the rally is done with.
So it’s an aggressive-sell at a break of 776.5 or a responsive-sell after a fast rejection around 796 or 802. If I don’t get either then I don’t trade.
